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35.29 percent. That is how often Ja'Marr Chase posted a boom week last season, the highest rate of any player in the top 60 of our best-ball board. Roughly one week in three, Chase put up a score that wins you the week on its own.
Best ball is a spike-week format. Your lineup auto-picks the best scores, so a player who alternates 25-point games with 6-point games is worth more than a steady 14 every week. Boom rate measures exactly that. Here are the six boom kings from our best-ball model, with the one trap in the group.
| Player | Boom % | Bust % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN) | 35.29 | 29.41 | 24.52 |
| Puka Nacua (WR, LAR) | 29.41 | 35.29 | 22.92 |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) | 29.41 | 23.53 | 21.86 |
| Brock Bowers (TE, LV) | 29.41 | 11.76 | 16.40 |
| Malik Nabers (WR, NYG) | 29.41 | 23.53 | 24.88 |
| Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) | 29.41 | 29.41 | 25.02 |
Boom and bust rates are computed from each player's 2025 weekly scores. A boom is a week in the top scoring band for the position; a bust is a bottom-band week. Ceiling is the player's best-week PPR output.
Chase pairs the top boom rate with a 24.52-point ceiling. In best ball you draft him and stop thinking. Five of the six names on this list are wide receivers, which is not an accident. Receiver scoring is spikier than running back scoring, and best ball pays for spikes twice: once in your lineup, once when your opponents' steadier picks flatline.
Puka Nacua's line deserves a second look. His boom rate is 29.41 percent, but his bust rate is 35.29 percent, the highest of the group and higher than his own boom rate. He missed the bottom band more often than he hit the top one. In best ball the busts are free because the lineup ignores them, so Nacua still profiles as a strong pick. In weekly-lineup leagues, that bust rate is start-sit agony. Format matters. Same player, different price.
Brock Bowers is the only tight end on the list, and his shape is the rarest in fantasy: 29.41 percent boom against just 11.76 percent bust. Spike weeks without the crater weeks, at the thinnest position in the game. Tight end is where best-ball rosters usually leak points, and Bowers closes the leak. His combination of positional edge and floor is why the model prices him inside its top 25 overall.
Terry McLaurin posted the single highest ceiling of the group at 25.02 points, with identical 29.41 percent boom and bust rates. He is a pure volatility play: a true week-winner ceiling attached to a real crater risk. That is exactly the profile you want in your fifth or sixth round, not your second.
Stack your early best-ball rounds with spike-week receivers, grab Bowers where the tight-end run starts, and save the McLaurin-shaped volatility for the middle rounds. The full board sorts by boom, bust, ceiling, and consistency, and the consensus rankings show where each player goes in standard formats. Underlying weekly scoring rules are documented at NFL.com's fantasy scoring reference.
Open the board, sort by boom rate, and draft the spikes.
