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Most of the boom-rate conversation in best ball happens in the first five rounds, because that is where the players with 30 percent boom rates usually get drafted. But a handful of names carrying real boom rates are sitting past pick 100, priced like bench filler. Here are five of them, plus one name our model is more skeptical of than the field.
| Player | TFP Rank | Consensus Rank | Boom % | Bust % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN) | 134 | 136 | 35.29 | 41.18 | 17.14 |
| Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) | 106 | 114 | 11.76 | 5.88 | 15.76 |
| Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) | 137 | 135 | 5.88 | 11.76 | 26.12 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) | 178 | 174 | 23.53 | 23.53 | 23.92 |
| Tank Dell (WR, HOU) | 179 | 179 | 29.41 | 29.41 | 21.42 |
Boom and bust rates come from each player's full 17-game 2025 slate, so unlike a lot of late-round buzz these numbers are not projecting off a half season or a hot stretch.
T.J. Hockenson's 35.29 percent boom rate leads every player in this group, tight end or otherwise. The catch is a 41.18 percent bust rate that also leads the group. He is the definition of a coin flip: more spike weeks than anyone here, but also more zero weeks than anyone here. At a tight end price outside the top 100, that trade is worth making. Best ball only counts your best lineup each week, so the bust weeks are free.
Mark Andrews is the opposite profile. His boom rate sits at a modest 11.76 percent, but his bust rate is just 5.88 percent, the lowest of anyone on this list. Our model has him at 106 overall against a consensus of 114, an eight-spot gap that is not huge but is consistent with a player the field is slightly underpricing. If Hockenson is the swing for the fences pick, Andrews is the one you take when you already have your ceiling covered elsewhere on the roster.
Alvin Kamara's 26.12 ceiling score is the highest of any player on this list by a wide margin, running back or otherwise. His boom rate is modest at 5.88 percent, but when he does hit, he hits bigger than anyone else in this tier. Our rank of 137 is basically in line with the 135 consensus, so there is no real market inefficiency to exploit, just a proven veteran still going a full round or two later than his ceiling would suggest.
Brandon Aiyuk and Tank Dell both post boom and bust rates within a point of each other, meaning both players are close to a literal coin flip on any given week. Aiyuk's 23.92 ceiling edges Dell's 21.42, and our model likes Aiyuk four spots more than consensus does. Dell's rank matches consensus almost exactly at 179, so there is no edge to argue for him over the field's own price. Take Aiyuk first between the two if you are drafting both as the same type of pick.
Not every gap between our rank and consensus points the same direction. Calvin Ridley sits at 182 in our model, nine spots worse than his 173 consensus rank, with a 17.65 percent bust rate that is more than three times his 5.88 percent boom rate. The field is pricing him ahead of where our numbers say he belongs. That does not mean avoid him entirely in the very late rounds, but it does mean he is not a value at his current draft cost the way the five names above are.
None of these five are top-100 picks, and that is the point. Each one carries a real, verified boom or floor profile that the field is pricing like a bench spot. Build your RB and WR core early, then use rounds where these players are actually going to add ceiling or floor depending on what your roster is missing. The best ball tool sorts the full board by boom, bust, and ceiling so you can find the next tier down yourself, and the consensus rankings show exactly where the field is drafting each of these names. For a refresher on how boom and bust weeks get scored, see NFL.com's fantasy scoring reference.
Sort by boom rate, filter for rank 100 and up, and see who else is hiding back there.
