Red Zone Touch Leaders: Top 15 Over the Last Three Weeks and Who's Due for TD Regression

Red zone touches are the closest thing fantasy football has to a crystal ball. Yards are noisy, but touches inside the 20 tell you who a coaching staff trusts when the field shrinks. Below is our top-15 for the last three weeks, followed by the names we think are lying about their touchdown totals, in both directions.

The Top 15 Red Zone Touch Leaders (Last 3 Weeks)

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Red Zone Touches
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	19
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	18
3	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	17
4	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	16
5	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	16
6	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	15
7	James Cook	RB	BUF	14
8	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	13
9	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	13
10	Kenneth Walker	RB	KC	12
11	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	12
12	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11
13	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	10
14	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	9
15	Jeremiyah Love	RB	ARI	8

Running backs dominate this list, which lines up with how offenses actually operate near the goal line, but the touchdown totals attached to these touch counts vary wildly. That gap is where the value lives.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs: Efficient, Not Lucky

Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs leads the sample and his touchdown output has largely matched the volume. As the unquestioned RB1 in Detroit's backfield, per our player rankings he sits at the very top of the entire board. There's no name above him on the Lions depth chart competing for these looks, so this volume should hold rather than get carved up.

2. Derrick Henry: Positive Regression Incoming

Henry is tied for the highest red zone touch total on this list at 16, yet he hasn't converted at the rate his workload suggests he should. He's still comfortably the lead back in Baltimore's rotation, with Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali well down the depth chart behind him, so there's no threat to his role. When a bell-cow back this trusted inside the 20 isn't scoring at his career baseline, that's a signal to buy, not sell.

3. Saquon Barkley: Trending the Right Way

Barkley's 15 red zone touches over three weeks is elite volume for any back in the league, and as Philadelphia's RB1 with no real competition behind him on the depth chart, he's going to keep getting these chances every single week. If his score rate has lagged the touches at all, it's a matter of when, not if, for positive regression.

4. James Cook: Watch the Efficiency Gap

Cook's 14 red zone touches as Buffalo's clear RB1 are strong, but backs sharing a red zone role with a rushing quarterback like Josh Allen often see their touchdown equity capped even when the raw touch count looks great. If Cook's score total looks light compared to names above him on this list, some of that math is simply Allen vulturing looks near the goal line, not bad luck.

5. Breece Hall: Volume Without the Trust

Hall's 13 touches keep him in the top 10, and as the Jets' unchallenged lead back on the depth chart, he isn't losing this role to anyone on the current roster. If his touchdown total trails the pace set by Barkley or Henry at similar touch counts, that's a back who is due for positive regression the moment the Jets offense finds a rhythm closer to the goal line.

6. Brock Bowers: A Tight End Doing Running Back Work

Bowers cracking this list at 9 red zone touches as the clear TE1 in Las Vegas is notable on its own, since tight ends rarely stack up against a running back-heavy leaderboard like this. Ashton Jeanty is also inside the 20 frequently for the Raiders, but Bowers earning enough targets and looks to land at #14 overall speaks to how much Las Vegas trusts him in scoring position, regardless of who else touches the ball on a given drive.

7. Chase Brown and Javonte Williams: Two Different Regression Stories

Brown's 13 touches as Cincinnati's lead back put him solidly in the middle of this table, and as the unchallenged RB1 there's no committee threat cutting into these chances going forward. Williams checks in lower at 10 touches as Dallas's RB1, but he's operating in an offense that features CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as legitimate red zone weapons at receiver, which can siphon looks that would otherwise go to the backfield. If Williams's touchdown rate on his touches has lagged Brown's, that gap is more about target competition than talent.

How to Use This List

The instinct with red zone touches is to assume they're an early-warning system for touchdown droughts about to end, but the story is different for every name here depending on who else is drawing volume around them. A back like Henry or Barkley who dominates the depth chart with zero real competition is a much safer positive-regression bet than a back like Cook who's sharing goal-line work with his own quarterback. For a deeper look at how these roles shake out the rest of the season, check our best ball tool or dig into weekly workload data yourself at Pro Football Reference.

Touch volume tells you opportunity. It doesn't tell you the whole story until you know who's standing next to that player in the huddle.