Week 4 Start/Sit: Seven Calls Where the Matchup Disagrees With the Box Score

Every number below is PPR points allowed per game through three weeks, by position, computed from the Week 1 to Week 3 box scores. The useful part of a defense-versus-position table is the top and the bottom. The middle is noise, and we have said so before, so these are all matchups sitting at one extreme or the other.

The game that pulls in two directions

Indianapolis at Washington is the most interesting spot on the board, because Washington is not simply good or bad. It is the most generous defense in football against wide receivers at 46.5 PPR per game, and the second stingiest against running backs at 11.9.

That one split settles three calls.

Start Josh Downs. His target counts read 4, then 9, then 11. That is a role growing every week, and it walks into the softest receiving matchup there is. The yardage has followed too: 37, 72, 77.

Start Tyler Warren. Washington is also third most generous to tight ends at 21.4 per game. Warren caught 9 of 10 targets in Week 3 and has gone 5, 7, 10 in looks. A tight end seeing double digit targets against a defense that cannot cover the position is the easiest start on this list.

Temper Jonathan Taylor. This is the uncomfortable one. He is a genuine workhorse with 66 carries in three games, and you are not benching him in most leagues. But he managed 23 carries for 68 yards last week without a score, and Washington has allowed the second fewest points to backs in the league. If you have a real alternative, this is the week it is closer than his name suggests.

Three more starts

Travis Kelce at Las Vegas. The Raiders are the second most generous defense against tight ends at 21.7 per game. Kelce has found the end zone in each of the last two weeks and went 9 of 11 for 101 in Week 2. The position is thin enough that a matchup this clean matters.

Bucky Irving against Green Bay. The Packers allow more to running backs than anyone at 30.7 per game. Irving has carried 8, 17 and 15 times, so the workload has settled into something real. Tampa Bay being a home underdog is the one wrinkle, since trailing cuts into carries, but 30.7 is a big enough number to absorb that.

Harold Fannin Jr., with a caveat. We flagged him as a waiver priority this week on a target line of 3, 6, 9 and two scores. Tonight is the wrong week to chase it. Pittsburgh has allowed 9.3 PPR per game to tight ends, which is 25th of 32, and this game carries a 38.5 total, the lowest on the board. He is a hold, not a start, unless your alternative is nothing.

Two sits that will feel wrong

Javonte Williams at Houston. He just went 19 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown, which is exactly the kind of line that gets a player locked into lineups. Houston has allowed 11.8 PPR per game to running backs, the fewest in the league. One good week against a soft front does not travel.

Tyler Higbee at Philadelphia. Eight catches on 11 targets and a score in Week 3 looks like a breakout for a tight end who had 2 targets in Week 1. Philadelphia allows 6.6 per game to the position, second stingiest in football. The volume is encouraging for later. This is not the week to find out.

Tonight, briefly

Pittsburgh at Cleveland has the lowest total of the week at 38.5, and the two defenses explain why. The one exploitable edge is that Cleveland is seventh most generous against receivers at 36.7 per game. The problem is that DK Metcalf has drawn 10, 9 and 5 targets, trending the wrong way, for 40, 27 and 31 yards. A good matchup does not fix a shrinking role, which is the same lesson the Fannin call is making from the other direction.

Quinshon Judkins has gone 12, 12 and 18 carries and is the better bet for volume, though Cleveland facing a Pittsburgh front that has been average against the run (21.6 per game, 12th) in a 38-point game caps the ceiling.

How to use this

Matchup extremes are worth acting on. Matchup middles are not, and most defense-versus-position tables bury that distinction by ranking all 32 teams as though every row carries equal information.

The other half is usage, and the two have to agree. Downs and Warren are starts because a rising target share meets a soft defense. Fannin and Metcalf are not, because in each case only one of those two things is true.

If you want to check where any other matchup lands, the full board is on our matchup ratings page, and this week's adds are in the Week 4 waiver wire. Every stat above comes from the Week 1 through Week 4 box scores at ESPN.