Lions at Bills Preview and Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 2

The Detroit Lions open Week 2 on the road against the Buffalo Bills tonight (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and it is the game of the night for a reason. Buffalo cuts the ribbon on the new Highmark Stadium with its home opener, both offenses are coming off shootouts, and the point total is one of the highest on the Week 2 board. Here is the preview, the betting picture, and our prediction.

The line tells the story

Buffalo opened as a field-goal favorite and the money kept coming. The Bills are now 5.5-point home favorites with a total of 54.5, and the moneyline sits at Buffalo -249, Detroit +205. That total is no accident. Both teams lit up the scoreboard in Week 1, when the Bills beat the Texans 36-31 and the Lions edged the Saints 31-30 in overtime. The SportsLine model projects roughly 59 combined points and leans to the over in a majority of simulations, and the recent trend agrees, with the over hitting in seven of the Lions' last 10 games and six of the Bills' last 10.

Buffalo has the edge, and the healthier roster

Josh Allen

Josh Allen is the straw that stirs this offense, and a home opener only raises his ceiling. He torched Houston for 334 passing yards and two touchdowns and added two more scores on the ground in Week 1, the kind of dual-threat line that wins fantasy weeks by itself. James Cook is the clear lead back with change-of-pace back Ty Johnson questionable with a hamstring, and Khalil Shakir is off the injury report entirely after a quiet camp scare.

Buffalo also got healthier where it counts. Linebacker Terrel Bernard, edge rusher Bradley Chubb, and defensive back Jordan Hancock were all cleared for Thursday, so the front that will chase Jared Goff is close to whole. Safety Cole Bishop and defensive lineman TJ Sanders are the questionable names to watch, but this is a defense trending up, not down.

Detroit can score, but the line is the problem

Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions are not short on firepower. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 and is a true bell-cow with Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve. Amon-Ra St. Brown drew a team-high 14 targets, and Sam LaPorta is healthy and running a full route tree again. On paper, Detroit can match Buffalo score for score.

The catch is up front. Detroit is down three starting offensive linemen: left guard Christian Mahogany and right tackle Blake Miller are both out, and center Cade Mays is on a multi-week absence. On a short week, on the road, in a loud opener against a rested Buffalo pass rush, that is the kind of matchup that can turn a clean pocket into chaos. Cornerback D.J. Reed is also questionable with a foot injury, which thins a secondary that has to chase Allen and the Buffalo passing game.

Three things to watch

• Can Detroit protect Goff? If the patched line holds, this is a track meet. If it does not, the Lions lean even harder on Gibbs and quick throws to St. Brown.
• Buffalo's opening drive at the new Highmark. A fast start in front of a jacked-up crowd could put Detroit in catch-up mode early.
• Fourth-quarter volume. With a 54.5 total, both passing games should stay live late, which keeps the primary pass-catchers on each side in play deep into the night.

Our prediction

We expect points, and we expect Buffalo to have a little more control at home behind a healthier roster and a rested front. Give us the Bills 31, Lions 27, with the over cashing and the game staying competitive into the fourth quarter. Detroit's ceiling is every bit as high, but the short week and the offensive line injuries are enough to tip a close one toward Buffalo.

Bottom line

Two of the best offenses in football, a brand-new stadium, and a total that says the scoreboard operator will be busy. If you are still setting your fantasy lineup, our Lions at Bills start/sit has every call, the waiver wire has this week's top adds if you need a fill-in, and the consensus rankings have everyone slotted. Then settle in for the best game of the night.