Week 3 Start/Sit: Six Calls That Are Actually Close

Your lineup has about four spots you already know the answer to and two you keep going back and forth on. This is about the second kind.

Every production number below is from the box scores, and every matchup number is points allowed per game from our defense vs position ratings. Two weeks is a small sample and we label it as one, but it is the sample everyone is working from.

Start: Garrett Wilson, Jets at Lions

Detroit is the softest matchup in the league for wide receivers right now, allowing 42.9 PPR points per game to the position, and the softest for quarterbacks at 32.0. Wilson has 11 catches for 136 yards and a score on 14 targets.

The part that seals it: the Jets are 6.5 point underdogs. Trailing teams throw, and Wilson is the only Jets receiver drawing consistent volume. This is a WR2 start with WR1 upside.

Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans at Colts

Twenty two targets in two games. That is the number. It leads every tight end in this slate and it is not close, and it has produced 16 catches for 175 yards without a touchdown yet.

Indianapolis is the third softest matchup for tight ends at 17.0 allowed per game. A high-target tight end with no touchdown luck yet, walking into a soft spot, is the cleanest start on this list.

Start: Omarion Hampton, Chargers at Bills

Buffalo has given up 30.1 PPR points per game to running backs, fourth most in the league. Hampton has 35 carries and two touchdowns through two weeks.

The honest counterweight: the Chargers are 7 point underdogs, and a team down two scores stops handing off. Hampton is a flex you start because the matchup is real, not a set-and-forget RB2. If the game stays within a score he will pay off.

Temper: Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs Texans

Taylor has been excellent. Forty three carries, 190 yards, four touchdowns, plus seven catches for 63 yards. Nobody is benching him.

But Houston is the toughest run defense in the league through two weeks, at 12.5 PPR points allowed per game to backs. Carolina, the softest, is giving up 36.3. That is a three times difference, and it is the gap between the matchup Taylor had and the one he has Sunday.

Start him. Expect closer to 12 than 25, and do not trade for him this week expecting the last two weeks to repeat.

Sit: Hunter Henry, Patriots at Jaguars

Jacksonville has allowed 1.4 PPR points per game to tight ends. That is the lowest figure at any position against any defense on this board.

Henry has six catches for 66 yards in two games, which is a streaming tight end's line in a neutral matchup. In this one he is a zero waiting to happen. If you have literally any other tight end, play them.

Temper: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs Patriots

Lawrence has 434 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, and he is playing well. New England has allowed 2.3 PPR points per game to quarterbacks, the lowest mark in the league.

Something has to give, and two weeks of defensive dominance is a smaller sample than it looks. But if you have a comparable option, this is the week to use it. If Lawrence is your only quarterback, start him and accept a quiet day.

The shortcut for everything else

Four defenses to attack and four to avoid, by position, through two weeks:

Target: running backs against Carolina (36.3) and Indianapolis (34.3). Receivers against Houston (44.2) and Buffalo (43.6). Tight ends against Detroit (29.4) and Washington (22.0).

Avoid: running backs against Houston (12.5) and Philadelphia (9.6). Tight ends against Jacksonville (1.4) and Philadelphia (1.7). Quarterbacks against New England (2.3) and Pittsburgh (4.0).

The full table for every team and position is on the matchups page, and it updates as the season fills in. If you are still short a body, the waiver wire has the most-added players from this week.