Week 6 Waiver Wire: A 20 Percent Target Share Nobody Has Claimed

Eleven players to claim this week, in order. Everyone here is rostered in under 35 percent of ESPN leagues and healthy as of this morning. FAAB percentages assume a 100 dollar season budget.

One change from last week, and it comes from grading our own calls: we are leading with pass catchers. More on why at the bottom.

The top three

1. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Houston. 4 percent rostered. Bid 12 to 16 percent.

He is seeing 20 percent of Houston's targets and is available in 96 percent of leagues. His weekly target counts are 5, 8, 6, 4, 5, which is the opposite of a fluke: it is the same number every week, which is what a real role looks like.

Nobody has claimed him because he has not had a loud game. A fifth of an NFL team's targets does not require one.

2. Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville. 27 percent rostered. Bid 12 to 16 percent.

A 21.8 percent target share, the highest of any available pass catcher, and seven targets in each of the last two weeks. Tight end is where a claim buys you the most, because the gap between a starter and a replacement is enormous and the acquisition cost is not.

3. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh. 20 percent rostered. Bid 10 to 14 percent.

He caught 5 of 7 for 44 and two touchdowns in Week 5, which was the best game anyone on our list produced. A 14.9 percent target share and three red zone targets in the last two weeks say it was not an accident.

Wide receiver

Tre' Harris, Los Angeles Chargers. 10 percent. Bid 6 to 9 percent. An 18.9 percent target share. He has been quiet for two weeks, which is why he is cheaper than he was.

Kendrick Bourne, Arizona. 2 percent. Bid 4 to 6 percent. Seven touches with two red zone targets in Week 5, on a 16.1 percent share. Essentially free.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore. 17 percent. Bid 4 to 6 percent. A 16.3 percent share on an offense that scores.

Tight end, where nothing costs anything

Greg Dulcich, Miami. 1 percent. Bid 3 to 5 percent. An 18 percent target share at one percent rostership. Miami lost De'Von Achane for the year and has to throw.

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay. 4 percent. Bid 3 to 5 percent. An 18.4 percent share, five targets in three of five weeks.

AJ Barner, Seattle. 7 percent. We flagged him last week as a one game spike and said so. He has since added a quiet five touch week, so the role is real but modest. Cheap, not exciting.

Running back, with a caveat

Kendre Miller, New Orleans. 12 percent. Bid 8 to 12 percent. Ten touches in Week 5 with four red zone and two goal line, the best field position work of any available back. Alvin Kamara is still there, so this is a share, not a takeover.

Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay. Under 1 percent. Bid 2 to 4 percent. A goal line touch in each of the last two weeks at effectively zero rostership. Bucky Irving is the starter and this is a dart, but darts this cheap are worth throwing.

Roschon Johnson, Chicago. 3 percent. Bid 2 to 4 percent. Eleven touches in Week 5 after none through three weeks. Kyle Monangai is questionable again, which is the opening.

Why pass catchers lead this week

We graded all twelve of last week's recommendations. Three produced useful weeks: Freiermuth at 21.5 points, Tyler Higbee at 13.3, Malik Washington at 12.1. Most of the rest did not.

The split was not random. Everyone we recommended with a target share of 11 percent or better averaged 8.5 points. Everyone below that averaged 3.3.

The reason is that a target share is a stable thing. A receiver who sees a fifth of his team's throws this week will likely see something close to that next week, because it reflects how an offense is designed. A committee running back's goal line carries are not stable in the same way. One week he gets the two yard plunge and the next week his teammate does, and nothing about the team changed.

Red zone work still matters, and it still finds players nobody else is looking at. But for a back it tells you about one afternoon, and for a pass catcher it tells you about a role. We are weighting it accordingly.

Rostership from ESPN leagues, usage from the Week 1 through Week 5 play by play at ESPN. The full available player board is on our waiver wire page, and last week's picks are in the Week 5 column.