Loading...
We use cookies for analytics and advertising to keep TheFantasyPicks free. These run by default; you can opt out anytime with Reject or via Cookie Settings. See our Privacy Policy.
Sponsored affiliate link.
Ranking moves, risers and fallers, and new posts. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Atlanta is 0-2 and Green Bay is 1-1, and the line says this is not close: Packers by 5.5 with a total of 43.5. That total is the interesting part. Books are saying one of these offenses is going to struggle to score, and the tape through two weeks says which one.
Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards and four touchdowns in two games. That is not a quiet 1-1 team, and the distribution is what should change your lineup.
Christian Watson has 10 catches for 188 yards and three touchdowns on 19 targets. Three scores in two games will not hold, but 19 targets is not a fluke of touchdown luck, it is a role. Matthew Golden has an almost identical workload: 10 catches, 153 yards, 18 targets. Two receivers at nine targets a game apiece is unusual, and it means neither is a bye-week flier. Both are startable this week in every format.
Tucker Kraft has nine targets for five catches and 80 yards. Against a Falcons defense that is the fourth softest matchup for tight ends in the league, giving up 20.7 PPR points per game to the position, he is a strong streaming play if your tight end spot is a problem.
Love himself is a low-end QB1 in a game his team is favored to control.
Cooper Rush has started both games and thrown four interceptions: 12 of 22 for 143 yards with a score and two picks in Week 1, then 10 of 17 for 86 yards and two more before Jack Strand replaced him in Week 2. Strand threw one of his own. Atlanta has Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa on the active roster, which tells you the situation is unsettled going into a short week.
None of that has stopped Bijan Robinson from being the one Atlanta player you start without thinking. He has 37 carries for 155 yards and eight catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. That is 47 touches in two games on an offense that has trailed most of both. The yards per carry is a modest 4.2, and it does not matter. Volume that survives a bad game script is the safest thing in fantasy football, and it is the case we made when we kept him high in our rest-of-season RB rankings.
Drake London has 10 targets and six catches for 80 yards. He is a WR2 you start because the targets are there, with the honest caveat that his quarterback has five turnovers.
Kyle Pitts Sr. has one catch for 15 yards on three targets in two games. He is not startable until the quarterback situation settles.
Atlanta is 0-2 with five interceptions from the quarterback position in two games, and Michael Penix Jr. is active. At some point a 0-2 team stops protecting a veteran stopgap who has thrown four picks and completed 22 of 39 passes, and finds out what it has. Thursday is the spot.
This is our opinion and not a report, and Atlanta has not said who starts. But the fantasy consequence is worth planning for either way: Penix under center raises Drake London's ceiling immediately and makes Kyle Pitts Sr. worth a speculative add rather than a drop. If Rush starts again, treat the Atlanta passing game as unplayable outside London.
Brian Robinson Jr. has 20 carries for 82 yards, which is enough to cap Bijan's rushing ceiling without ever being startable himself.
Start: Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Bijan Robinson, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft.
Flex with confidence: Drake London.
Sit: Brian Robinson Jr., and Cooper Rush if he is the one who starts.
Speculative add: Kyle Pitts Sr., but only if Penix is named. On a short week that news may not land until close to kickoff.
The one to think hardest about: Watson's three touchdowns in two games are not repeatable, so if someone in your league is offering a proven WR1 for him off the hot start, that is a trade worth running through the trade calculator. The targets say he is real. The touchdown rate says he is currently priced above what he is.
Green Bay is the 13th softest matchup for receivers at 38.4 points allowed per game, so Atlanta's pass catchers are not in a bad spot on paper. They just need someone to throw them the ball. Check the waiver wire if you are still filling a flex before kickoff.