Falcons 35, Packers 14: Penix Arrives and Bijan Robinson Runs for 194

Green Bay scored first and then did not score again for nearly three quarters. Atlanta put up 27 unanswered at Lambeau, won 35 to 14, and did it in the first start Michael Penix Jr. has made since the knee injury that ended his season last November.

Both teams are 1-2. Only one of them looked like it knew what it was doing.

How it actually went

Christian Watson caught a four yard touchdown from Jordan Love with 5:13 left in the first quarter, and per the box score that was Green Bay's high point. Bijan Robinson answered from three yards out before the quarter ended. Nick Folk hit a 44 yarder, Austin Hooper caught a five yard score from Penix with 59 seconds left in the half, and Atlanta went to the locker room up 17 to 7 having taken the lead and kept it.

The third quarter settled it. Brian Robinson Jr. scored from seven yards, Folk added a 31 yarder early in the fourth, and Atlanta led 27 to 7 with ten minutes left. Matthew Golden's 15 yard touchdown made it respectable. Bijan Robinson's second score, followed by a Penix two point pass to Chris Blair, did not.

Bijan Robinson, 29 carries, 194 yards, two scores

This is the game the volume was always pointing at.

Robinson came in with 47 touches through two weeks on an offense that had trailed almost the entire time, averaging a modest 4.2 yards per carry. We kept him fifth in our rest-of-season RB rankings on exactly that logic: carries that survive a bad game script are the safest thing in fantasy football, and the efficiency follows when the script turns.

Thursday was the script turning. He added two catches for 19 yards and finished with 213 scrimmage yards.

Penix was not a dart

We called Penix a superflex dart only in our preview, reasoning that a first start back from a serious knee injury on a short week was too much to trust. That was wrong.

He went 18 of 25 for 256 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the completion rate is the number that matters: 72 percent, on a night his team led wire to wire after the first quarter. Atlanta had not reached the red zone once in two games under Cooper Rush. They scored five touchdowns in this one.

Drake London was the direct beneficiary, and this is the part our preview did get right. He caught nine of ten targets for 194 yards. His problem was never separation, it was the quarterback, and the quarterback changed.

Green Bay threw 53 times and ran eight

Jordan Love finished 28 of 53 for 312 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Those are not bad numbers. They are the numbers of a team that fell behind and stopped pretending it had another plan.

The Packers' running backs combined for eight carries and 17 yards. MarShawn Lloyd had four for 11, Kaleb Johnson four for six. You cannot win at home giving up 194 rushing yards to one back while your own backfield touches the ball eight times.

The receivers were fine in isolation. Golden caught five of 12 targets for 100 yards and a score, Watson seven of ten for 96 and a score. Twenty two targets between two receivers is volume you will take in fantasy. It is also evidence of an offense with nothing else available.

What it means for lineups

Bijan Robinson is a top-five back and the Atlanta offense now has a quarterback who can hold a defense honest. Nothing to think about.

Drake London moves up for real, not on projection. Nine catches, 194 yards, and a quarterback who looks at him.

Michael Penix Jr. is a streaming option with a real floor now, not a dart. Temper it slightly: this was one game, against a defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in our matchup ratings.

Kyle Pitts Sr. still did nothing, and Austin Hooper took the touchdown. If you added Pitts on the Penix news, hold, but do not start him yet.

Jordan Love is throwing 53 times a game because Green Bay cannot run. That is fine for his passing volume and bad for everything else in that offense. Golden and Watson are both startable. The Packers backfield is not.

Check the waiver wire before Sunday. Atlanta pass catchers are the obvious add of the week, and somebody in your league dropped London two weeks ago.